Use this comprehensive checklist to validate your gallium investment thesis before committing capital.
Supply Analysis Checklist
- [ ] Reviewed global gallium production data
- [ ] Understand byproduct nature and constraints
- [ ] Assessed China's 70%+ production dominance
- [ ] Evaluated capacity expansion timeline
- [ ] Researched recovery rate potential
- [ ] Identified supply concentration risks
Demand Analysis Checklist
- [ ] Researched 5G infrastructure deployment status
- [ ] Analyzed EV adoption curves and projections
- [ ] Studied renewable energy deployment trends
- [ ] Reviewed semiconductor industry trends
- [ ] Examined emerging application opportunities
- [ ] Verified gallium content per unit across applications
Technology & Market Checklist
- [ ] GaN adoption rate in target markets
- [ ] Competitive technology analysis
- [ ] Substitution risk assessment
- [ ] Technology adoption S-curve positioning
- [ ] Market size and growth projections
- [ ] Industry participation and credibility
Geopolitical & Risk Checklist
- [ ] Reviewed China-US trade relationship
- [ ] Assessed export controls risk
- [ ] Evaluated supply chain resilience
- [ ] Analyzed geopolitical premium valuation
- [ ] Considered military/strategic importance
- [ ] Reviewed historical supply disruptions
Valuation & Timing Checklist
- [ ] Researched historical price ranges
- [ ] Analyzed current spot price positioning
- [ ] Evaluated cost-of-production basis
- [ ] Assessed entry point timing
- [ ] Calculated return scenarios
- [ ] Determined risk-adjusted expectations
Portfolio & Personal Checklist
- [ ] Verified appropriate allocation percentage
- [ ] Confirmed risk tolerance alignment
- [ ] Verified time horizon sufficiency (5-10 years minimum)
- [ ] Confirmed capital adequacy
- [ ] Understood liquidity requirements
- [ ] Assessed emotional discipline capability
Execution Readiness Checklist
- [ ] Storage arrangement confirmed (if physical)
- [ ] Insurance coverage verified (if physical)
- [ ] Purchase strategy documented
- [ ] Supplier verification completed (if physical)
- [ ] Exit strategy developed
- [ ] Tax implications understood
Information Sources Checklist
- [ ] Reviewed market research reports
- [ ] Analyzed industry publications
- [ ] Studied company announcements
- [ ] Examined government statistics
- [ ] Researched academic papers
- [ ] Consulted industry experts
Final Validation Checklist
- [ ] Thesis clearly articulated in writing
- [ ] All major risks identified and considered
- [ ] Supporting documentation organized
- [ ] Alternative views understood and addressed
- [ ] Update/review schedule established
- [ ] Psychological readiness confirmed
Red Flags to Address
If you checked any of these, reconsider:
- [ ] Cannot articulate clear thesis rationale
- [ ] Uncomfortable with 5-10 year time horizon
- [ ] Inadequate capital or liquidity concerns
- [ ] Thesis dependent on single factor
- [ ] Unable to tolerate 30%+ drawdowns
- [ ] Considering this as short-term trade
- [ ] Pressured to invest by external factors
Thesis Approval
Once you've completed this checklist:
- Review your responses
- Address any gaps or concerns
- Document your final thesis
- Set calendar reminders for quarterly reviews
Ready to proceed? How to Invest in Gallium