Gallium Investment Thesis Checklist - Validation Framework

Use this comprehensive checklist to validate your gallium investment thesis before committing capital.

Supply Analysis Checklist

  • [ ] Reviewed global gallium production data
  • [ ] Understand byproduct nature and constraints
  • [ ] Assessed China's 70%+ production dominance
  • [ ] Evaluated capacity expansion timeline
  • [ ] Researched recovery rate potential
  • [ ] Identified supply concentration risks

Demand Analysis Checklist

  • [ ] Researched 5G infrastructure deployment status
  • [ ] Analyzed EV adoption curves and projections
  • [ ] Studied renewable energy deployment trends
  • [ ] Reviewed semiconductor industry trends
  • [ ] Examined emerging application opportunities
  • [ ] Verified gallium content per unit across applications

Technology & Market Checklist

  • [ ] GaN adoption rate in target markets
  • [ ] Competitive technology analysis
  • [ ] Substitution risk assessment
  • [ ] Technology adoption S-curve positioning
  • [ ] Market size and growth projections
  • [ ] Industry participation and credibility

Geopolitical & Risk Checklist

  • [ ] Reviewed China-US trade relationship
  • [ ] Assessed export controls risk
  • [ ] Evaluated supply chain resilience
  • [ ] Analyzed geopolitical premium valuation
  • [ ] Considered military/strategic importance
  • [ ] Reviewed historical supply disruptions

Valuation & Timing Checklist

  • [ ] Researched historical price ranges
  • [ ] Analyzed current spot price positioning
  • [ ] Evaluated cost-of-production basis
  • [ ] Assessed entry point timing
  • [ ] Calculated return scenarios
  • [ ] Determined risk-adjusted expectations

Portfolio & Personal Checklist

  • [ ] Verified appropriate allocation percentage
  • [ ] Confirmed risk tolerance alignment
  • [ ] Verified time horizon sufficiency (5-10 years minimum)
  • [ ] Confirmed capital adequacy
  • [ ] Understood liquidity requirements
  • [ ] Assessed emotional discipline capability

Execution Readiness Checklist

  • [ ] Storage arrangement confirmed (if physical)
  • [ ] Insurance coverage verified (if physical)
  • [ ] Purchase strategy documented
  • [ ] Supplier verification completed (if physical)
  • [ ] Exit strategy developed
  • [ ] Tax implications understood

Information Sources Checklist

  • [ ] Reviewed market research reports
  • [ ] Analyzed industry publications
  • [ ] Studied company announcements
  • [ ] Examined government statistics
  • [ ] Researched academic papers
  • [ ] Consulted industry experts

Final Validation Checklist

  • [ ] Thesis clearly articulated in writing
  • [ ] All major risks identified and considered
  • [ ] Supporting documentation organized
  • [ ] Alternative views understood and addressed
  • [ ] Update/review schedule established
  • [ ] Psychological readiness confirmed

Red Flags to Address

If you checked any of these, reconsider:

  • [ ] Cannot articulate clear thesis rationale
  • [ ] Uncomfortable with 5-10 year time horizon
  • [ ] Inadequate capital or liquidity concerns
  • [ ] Thesis dependent on single factor
  • [ ] Unable to tolerate 30%+ drawdowns
  • [ ] Considering this as short-term trade
  • [ ] Pressured to invest by external factors

Thesis Approval

Once you've completed this checklist:

  • Review your responses
  • Address any gaps or concerns
  • Document your final thesis
  • Set calendar reminders for quarterly reviews

Ready to proceed? How to Invest in Gallium