Gallium Counterparty Risks - Dealer Fraud and Operational Risk

This guide analyzes risks from dealers, storage facilities, and other counterparties.

Dealer Fraud Risk

Common Fraud Schemes

Misrepresented Purity

  • Lower purity: Sold as higher grade
  • Price difference: 100-400% markup
  • Detection: Difficult without testing
  • Frequency: Common risk

Counterfeit Certificates

  • Fake CoA documents: Created
  • Lab signatures: Forged
  • Authenticity: Appears real
  • Loss potential: Total investment

Mixed Grade Deception

  • High purity exterior: Apparent
  • Lower purity interior: Hidden
  • Surface testing: Passes verification
  • Problem: Discovered later

Bait and Switch

  • High purity promised: Initial
  • Lower purity delivered: Actually
  • Sealed packaging: Changes hidden
  • Recourse: Limited

Fraud Detection Difficulty

Professional Appearance

  • Websites: Professional
  • Certificates: Authentic-looking
  • Communication: Polished
  • Deception: Convincing

Verification Challenge

  • Testing cost: Significant
  • Time required: Weeks
  • Destructive testing: Ruins sample
  • Cost-benefit: Sometimes unclear

Fraud Prevalence

Frequency Unknown

  • Exact rates: Unmeasured
  • Estimated: 10-25% of dealers?
  • Speculation: Limited data
  • Reality: Exists and significant

Dealer Reliability Risk

Business Failure

Dealer Collapse

  • Business fails: Possible
  • Capital loss: Total
  • Recovery: Difficult
  • Timeline: Long litigation

Causes

  • Business mismanagement
  • Fraud discovery: Forces closure
  • Regulatory action: Shuts down
  • Market changes: Operations unsustainable

Service Interruption

When You Need Service

  • Dealer disappears: Leaves town
  • Cannot access metal: In facility
  • Communication: Ceases
  • Resolution: Unclear

Storage Facility Risk

Facility Collapse

Storage Operator Failure

  • Business fails: Insolvency
  • Facility closes: Unexpectedly
  • Access lost: Cannot retrieve
  • Legal battles: Years needed

Why Happens

  • Fraud by operator
  • Mismanagement
  • Theft discovered
  • Regulatory closure

Fire/Theft Risk

Despite Security

  • Fire: Still possible
  • Theft: Can occur
  • Sabotage: Possible
  • Multiple catastrophes: Possible

Insurance Limitations

Gaps in Coverage

  • Coverage limits: May be low
  • Exclusions: Common
  • Deductibles: Significant
  • Claims: May be disputed

Bankruptcy Problem

  • Insolvency: Covers nobody fully
  • Creditor line: Forms
  • Gallium holders: May get nothing
  • Priority: Often last

Allocated vs Segregated Storage

Segregated Storage

Your Bars Identified

  • Direct access: To your metal
  • Clear separation: Your items
  • Individual verification: Your metal checked
  • Theft protection: Only your metal

Risks

  • Commingling: Still possible
  • Mislabeling: Can happen
  • Operator fraud: Still risk
  • Facility failure: Still affects you

Allocated/Pooled Storage

Commingled Storage

  • Shared facility: With others
  • Mixed storage: Your bars with others
  • Individual ID: Hard to verify
  • Withdrawal: Subject to delays

Risks

  • Commingling default: All lose
  • Theft: Affects all customers
  • Preferential treatment: Possible
  • Discrimination: Against some customers

Operational Risk

Physical Security Gaps

Despite Safeguards

  • Inside help: Possible
  • Corruption: Can occur
  • System bypassing: Possible
  • Theft: Despite security

Environmental Risk

Storage Conditions

  • Temperature control: Failure possible
  • Humidity: Can drift
  • Contamination: Can occur
  • Degradation: Possible

Inventory Discrepancies

Accounting Errors

  • Miscounting: Happens
  • Documentation: Can be wrong
  • Verification: May not catch errors
  • Losses: Gradual or sudden

Third-Party Verification Risk

Lab Testing Fraud

Fraudulent Certifications

  • Lab bribery: Possible
  • False tests: Can be created
  • Undiscovered fraud: Difficult
  • Verification: Need independent labs

Conflict of Interest

Lab Business Model

  • Repeat customer: Wants satisfied
  • Pressure: To provide results
  • Incentive: To be lenient
  • Bias: Possible

Insurance Limitations

What Insurance Covers

Standard Coverage

  • Theft: Often covered
  • Fire: Typically covered
  • Natural disaster: Usually yes
  • Loss: Most causes

Exclusions

  • Fraud: May not cover
  • Operator theft: Disputed
  • Negligence: Often excluded
  • War/terrorism: Typically excluded

Coverage Limits

Typical Issues

  • Limit: Much less than value
  • Multiple loss: Partial recovery
  • Deductibles: Significant
  • Claims: Often disputed

Example

  • Facility holds: $100 million in gallium
  • Insurance coverage: $10 million only
  • Facility loss: $50 million
  • Customers recover: $5-10 million
  • Your share: If lucky, 5-10%

Chain of Custody Risk

Tracking Gaps

Documentation Loss

  • Records missing: Can happen
  • Chain broken: Unverifiable
  • Ownership questions: Arise
  • Legal disputes: Result

Handling Errors

Wrong Metal

  • Mislabeling: Occurs
  • Mixing: Mistakes happen
  • Wrong metal delivered: Possible
  • Verification: Too late

Geographic Risk

Regulatory Differences

Different Countries

  • Consumer protection: Varies
  • Storage regulation: Different
  • Recourse: Depends on location
  • Legal system: Affects recovery

Currency Risk

If Foreign

  • Currency exchange: Affects value
  • Repatriation: May be restricted
  • Political risk: Varies
  • Transfer: Complicated

Relationship Dependency

Single Dealer Exposure

All Business One Dealer

  • If dealer fails: Lose everything
  • No alternative: Available
  • Switching: Expensive/difficult
  • Concentration: Very risky

Single Facility Storage

All Metal One Place

  • Facility failure: Lose all
  • No diversification: Available
  • Catastrophic loss: Possible
  • Concentration: Very risky

Mitigation Strategies

Dealer Selection

Due Diligence

  • History: Research thoroughly
  • References: Check carefully
  • Reputation: Verify independently
  • Financial stability: Assess

Verification Protocol

Independent Testing

  • All purchases: Test sample
  • Random verification: Periodic
  • Professional labs: Use independent
  • Documentation: Maintain careful records

Storage Diversification

Multiple Facilities

  • Don't concentrate: All in one
  • Geographic spread: Different locations
  • Different operators: Reduces correlation
  • Risk reduction: Significant

Insurance Coverage

Adequate Insurance

  • Full coverage: Aim for 100%
  • Multiple policies: If needed
  • Verification: Check coverage details
  • Claims support: Document everything

Key Takeaways

  1. Fraud Risk Real - 10-25% estimated prevalence
  2. Dealer Failure - Can happen anytime
  3. Storage Risks - Fire, theft, negligence possible
  4. Insurance Limits - Often insufficient
  5. Commingling Risk - Affects all commingled customers
  6. Diversification Critical - Multiple dealers/facilities
  7. Verification Essential - Independent testing important
  8. Relationship Important - Choose counterparties carefully

Disclaimer

This analysis is educational. Counterparty risks are significant. No verification method guarantees against all fraud. Choose counterparties very carefully.